Euro dollar repairs its conquests and returns to the lower range, following yet another line of support. Correction is already over? European inflation have cheerleaders strong euro, which received quite a few figures rău. The last hours in this week, month and quarter will likely provide more unstable as trading positions are adjusted.
Here's a quick update on technique, fundamentals, and what happens in the markets.
EUR / USD Technical
Asian Session: More drops were seen as a pair struggledaround 1.3550.
• Current range: 1.3430 - 1.35.
• Additional levels in both directions: Below 1.3430,, 1.3385, 1.3322, 1.3250, 1.3180.
• Above: 1.35, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.37, 1.3750 1.3838, 1.3950
• Looking up, now becomes important resistance 1.3550.
• On the downside, 1.3430 is a significant cushion.
Euro / dollar growth - click on graphic to enlarge.
EUR / USD Fundamentals
• Retail sales in Germany 6:00. Exp. -0.4%. Real -2.9%. Big disappointment.
• 6:45 French consumer spending for two months. Exp. 0.2% and 0.4%. -0.2% And 0.2% real - lower than expected.
• 9:00 IPC European Flash estimate. Exp. 2.5%. Current 3%. Upside surprise, not cheerleaders euro.
• 9:00 European unemployment. Exp. 10%. Real de 10%.
• 12:30 U.S. personal spending. Exp. 0.2%.
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index 12:30. Exp. 0.2%.
• 12:30 U.S. personal income. Exp. 0.1%.
• 1:45 p.m. U.S. Chicago PMI. Exp. 55.8.
• 1:55 p.m. U.S. consumer sentiment. Exp. 57.9 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see Euro to U.S. dollars forecast
EUR / USD Sentiment
• End of month / quarter flows: Some funds are re-balancing their portfolios at the end of this period, which was characterized by stock market drops and a strong dollar. This is one reason for the growth seen earlier this week. This is now debugging.
• double downgrade New Zealand: a country sound more in the world, has received a credit rating downgrade by two agencies. This sent a month in June lower kiwi and also had a negative effect on the euro.
• China is the land: the manufacturing PMI recently published by HSBC showed a third month of contraction, although it was only marginally below the separation of growth and contraction. This indicates a soft landing. Many talk about a hard landing.
• multi-trillion rescue fund: the hope of rescue fund leverage (EFSF) are winding down as refusals to become louder and louder?. While German lawmakers offered a broad new powers EFSF approval, the message is that this is the last approval.
• Troika in Greece, but the default still looms: Troika EU / IMF is in Greece, after the Parliament approved the property tax there. They are expected to give their stamp on the long-delayed installment of aid to Greece, before the country runs out of money, although those talks run into difficulties. But talking about a default will not die. Here, denials do not help. According to reports, Greece will take place on line for 6 weeks, and get involved in early November. Time will be used for preparations from other countries and in banks. These plans are also awaiting approval of the German Parliament.
• Some positive U.S. News: While the focus remains on the European debt crisis, a significant decrease in U.S. jobless claims and the revision in Q2 GDP up by providing some hope that the U.S. will escape recession. These numbers come beautiful background of many of the poor.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
EURUSD 150 Pips Rally - Why?
Investors are probably scratching their heads right now wondering how risk appetite can be so strong this morning after European officials rejected all of yesterday's rumors about increasing the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and using the European Investment Bank (EIB) to bail the euro out. The reason why the mood continues to improve is because regardless of the denials by European nations that a deal is in the works, the market realizes that if the Europeans are serious about ending their sovereign debt crisis once and for all - and it certainly sounds like they are - they need to announce a major bailout plan in the very near future. It may not take the form of what the U.K. Telegraph or CNBC proposes, but it needs to be equally large and ambitious. In other words, if the market wants a European style TARP, policymakers need to meet or exceed their expectations and based upon recent comments from EU officials, something is in the works whether they admit to it or not.
Optimistic About Greek Vote
At the same time, investors are also optimistic about today's vote in Greece. The Greek Parliament is widely expected to approve an unpopular increase in property tax to show their resolve in slashing their deficit. The Prime Minister even pledged to make a "superhuman effort" to make their debt reduction program a success. Buyers of Italian and Spanish bonds demanded a higher yield at today's auction but the number of bids to the number bonds available for purchase (bid to cover ratio) was strong.
Quarter End Rebalancing Needs
The quarter is also coming to an end and in order to rebalance their portfolios following the sharp sell-off in equities in Q3, money managers will need to buy stocks and high yielding currencies. To clarify further for our new readers, imagine that you are a global money manager with 50 percent of your portfolio in US equities and 50 percent of your portfolio in the German stocks. In the third quarter, US stocks lost approximately 12 percent of their value while German stocks declined by approximately 25 percent. Adjusting for the 6 percent decline in the euro in the third quarter and the drop in the value of German stocks is closer to 30 percent. In order to rebalance the portfolio, you will need to buy both U.S. and German stocks but more euros will need to be bought than dollars.
US Confidence Rebounds but Remains Near 2 Yr Low
Across the Atlantic, U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in the month of September according to Conference Board. Although this may be a sign that confidence is stabilizing, before getting too excited, it is important to realize that consumer sentiment remains just a hair above its 2 year low. Manufacturing activity in the Richmond region also contracted at a slower pace which is in line with the rebound seen in other parts of the nation. Stronger U.S. numbers should help to sustain risk appetite in the financial markets.
Optimistic About Greek Vote
At the same time, investors are also optimistic about today's vote in Greece. The Greek Parliament is widely expected to approve an unpopular increase in property tax to show their resolve in slashing their deficit. The Prime Minister even pledged to make a "superhuman effort" to make their debt reduction program a success. Buyers of Italian and Spanish bonds demanded a higher yield at today's auction but the number of bids to the number bonds available for purchase (bid to cover ratio) was strong.
Quarter End Rebalancing Needs
The quarter is also coming to an end and in order to rebalance their portfolios following the sharp sell-off in equities in Q3, money managers will need to buy stocks and high yielding currencies. To clarify further for our new readers, imagine that you are a global money manager with 50 percent of your portfolio in US equities and 50 percent of your portfolio in the German stocks. In the third quarter, US stocks lost approximately 12 percent of their value while German stocks declined by approximately 25 percent. Adjusting for the 6 percent decline in the euro in the third quarter and the drop in the value of German stocks is closer to 30 percent. In order to rebalance the portfolio, you will need to buy both U.S. and German stocks but more euros will need to be bought than dollars.
US Confidence Rebounds but Remains Near 2 Yr Low
Across the Atlantic, U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in the month of September according to Conference Board. Although this may be a sign that confidence is stabilizing, before getting too excited, it is important to realize that consumer sentiment remains just a hair above its 2 year low. Manufacturing activity in the Richmond region also contracted at a slower pace which is in line with the rebound seen in other parts of the nation. Stronger U.S. numbers should help to sustain risk appetite in the financial markets.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
What stands behind the Forex fever
Under the umbrella of sophisticated currency trading operates online sportsbooks a lot of Romanians who promise fabulous gains.
George Soros would die of envy if they are as Romanians can earn foreign exchange transactions. If the famous financier obtained a gain of "only" 10% of several billion dollars placed on the day of the pound fell, a Romanian modest profit may reach 85% within 24 hours even if the investment is millions times smaller. at least that some companies specialized brokers in online transactions, while foreign exchange markets shows that investors, acting rather as mere agents of betting. Through these platforms every Romanian, "regardless of culture and education" can be rich, allegedly by selling and buying currencies alongside the world's major banks.
Lightning initiation in the Forex market
From the experts that I called on the pretext that we are willing to gain easy, I found that Forex trading (foreign exchange market or "forex market") are so easy to understand that you wonder why they bother some people or years to study at university years only famous for the brokers to engage in anonymous bank who knows what. "No matter if you've never traded before. What if you do not have economic knowledge? is very simple. You create register. supplied with at least 100 euros and you can start to sell and buy currencies. You take a pair and ready. If you bet that the euro falls, and even falls, you win, if you lose, "explains gracious lady, employed a specialized Forex trading platform. In our naivety we asked if we have some chance of winning. "Do we exist if people do not win?" Easily irritated asks us "experts", who informs us that perhaps profit to jump 80% in just a few hours of trading.
"If you go by the straight line curve you win"
From one of the "brokers" I learned that even the notions of reading or arithmetic are not required. You only have a minimal graphic sense. Similarity with the famous "păcănele" is striking. "Suppose that chose to lower / higher. Suppose we pair euro / dollar. Press top and see that there is a graph. You have a curve and a straight line. If at the end of the day than the straight line curve you win. The right is passed over, the gain is greater. You can make 85% profit, "explains another nice lady. Just as electronic games: large or small. Nothing about that chart is actually curved in euro / dollar and" straight line ", a level established under even by the intermediary, nothing about the fact that this course is influenced by a multitude of factors and thus should be good for the investor to have some depth notions of economy, nothing about that in our case, to win 85% of amount should be placed on the euro to appreciate against the dollar a few percent better (which happens in reality only exception).
"No matter what the chart shows. Follow the straight line"
Broker but we have other games fun and downright attractive. For example, she says, we can select the "one touch", in which case we can only hope that by the end of the day will reach a curved line just once. Or we can choose to "limit" in which case Our line curve must move between two straight well represented on the screen. In translation, the exchange rate should remain at the end of the day within the limits of which we are not saying a word. We are practically free to play the blind, and that you are the very kind lady: "Yes, the chart shows the exchange rate, but that's not important. Follow the straight line. "
Forex market for all
Even more complicated concepts such as trading on margin seem a breeze after a discussion with one of the "experts" in Forex. "The minimum amount you should place it is 100 euros but with leverage, will trade actually $ 10,000, "says the third lady kind. We ask, of course, "What's that leverage?". The answer explains the situation: "This is it, one in 100 for the pair euro / dollar." Wonder if some kind of loan you take from them. We are told that if the loan was interest demanded. Ask if "we lose the leverage this more." We are responsible not. It remains only to replenish the account and ready especially since we are given a challenging example. "How much was the minimum rate Euro / dollar ? See how was the maximum. If you have bought at least and would be sold within you had doubled the amount of account ".
And yet not so simple
But in reality, say brokers true, no one, no matter how good it is, fails to buy the lowest and sell at the highest level. With regard to margin transactions, they are, despite what the operators told us, a form of interim loan from the investor and also a formula that not just anyone can understand. Represents a method that can bring gains but, as well, you can leave without a penny in your account. Suppose you decided to invest $ 100. Brokerage firm will provide a "leverage" of 1:100, that is real for every dollar invested can give you $ 100. You can thus use $ 10,000 of which own $ 100 and 9900 dollars of the company. The $ 10,000 buy euros at a rate of $ 1.27 for one euro. You buy them 7874 euro. From here on there are two possibilities: either the euro falls, where you lose money, the euro increases in case you win. Suppose the euro appreciated by 1% against the dollar. In this case, the 7874 is now worth 10,100 euros buy dollars. Return the borrowed 9900 dollars and end up with $ 200, you've doubled the amount. On the other hand if euro falls by 1% you will lose everything because the amount purchased will be worth only 9900 dollars, that is just money to be returned to the broker.
What is the truth
The reality is that in Romania, in addition to brokers like the above, there are a lot of serious companies that do not promise nor guarantee that its earnings and customer selected. Brokers these companies use roughly the same methods, but shows clearly how and gain opportunities and risks. "The risks involved in trading on financial markets are not negligible. Forex market volatility is high and in combination with margin trading with high leverage can be dangerous for a customer's account if it has no basic knowledge necessary to initiate a transaction, "said Julian ZF Rizea, manager of brokerage companies. On the other hand, the gains can be significant indeed. "risks arising from margin, and not from market volatility. use increases the risk margin, but also reverse is true, margin and multiply as can win, "said another broker. In Romania there are over 40,000 people who trade currencies online. Most couples choose to bet on the euro / leu euro / dollar and euro / pound sterling.
George Soros would die of envy if they are as Romanians can earn foreign exchange transactions. If the famous financier obtained a gain of "only" 10% of several billion dollars placed on the day of the pound fell, a Romanian modest profit may reach 85% within 24 hours even if the investment is millions times smaller. at least that some companies specialized brokers in online transactions, while foreign exchange markets shows that investors, acting rather as mere agents of betting. Through these platforms every Romanian, "regardless of culture and education" can be rich, allegedly by selling and buying currencies alongside the world's major banks.
Lightning initiation in the Forex market
From the experts that I called on the pretext that we are willing to gain easy, I found that Forex trading (foreign exchange market or "forex market") are so easy to understand that you wonder why they bother some people or years to study at university years only famous for the brokers to engage in anonymous bank who knows what. "No matter if you've never traded before. What if you do not have economic knowledge? is very simple. You create register. supplied with at least 100 euros and you can start to sell and buy currencies. You take a pair and ready. If you bet that the euro falls, and even falls, you win, if you lose, "explains gracious lady, employed a specialized Forex trading platform. In our naivety we asked if we have some chance of winning. "Do we exist if people do not win?" Easily irritated asks us "experts", who informs us that perhaps profit to jump 80% in just a few hours of trading.
"If you go by the straight line curve you win"
From one of the "brokers" I learned that even the notions of reading or arithmetic are not required. You only have a minimal graphic sense. Similarity with the famous "păcănele" is striking. "Suppose that chose to lower / higher. Suppose we pair euro / dollar. Press top and see that there is a graph. You have a curve and a straight line. If at the end of the day than the straight line curve you win. The right is passed over, the gain is greater. You can make 85% profit, "explains another nice lady. Just as electronic games: large or small. Nothing about that chart is actually curved in euro / dollar and" straight line ", a level established under even by the intermediary, nothing about the fact that this course is influenced by a multitude of factors and thus should be good for the investor to have some depth notions of economy, nothing about that in our case, to win 85% of amount should be placed on the euro to appreciate against the dollar a few percent better (which happens in reality only exception).
"No matter what the chart shows. Follow the straight line"
Broker but we have other games fun and downright attractive. For example, she says, we can select the "one touch", in which case we can only hope that by the end of the day will reach a curved line just once. Or we can choose to "limit" in which case Our line curve must move between two straight well represented on the screen. In translation, the exchange rate should remain at the end of the day within the limits of which we are not saying a word. We are practically free to play the blind, and that you are the very kind lady: "Yes, the chart shows the exchange rate, but that's not important. Follow the straight line. "
Forex market for all
Even more complicated concepts such as trading on margin seem a breeze after a discussion with one of the "experts" in Forex. "The minimum amount you should place it is 100 euros but with leverage, will trade actually $ 10,000, "says the third lady kind. We ask, of course, "What's that leverage?". The answer explains the situation: "This is it, one in 100 for the pair euro / dollar." Wonder if some kind of loan you take from them. We are told that if the loan was interest demanded. Ask if "we lose the leverage this more." We are responsible not. It remains only to replenish the account and ready especially since we are given a challenging example. "How much was the minimum rate Euro / dollar ? See how was the maximum. If you have bought at least and would be sold within you had doubled the amount of account ".
And yet not so simple
But in reality, say brokers true, no one, no matter how good it is, fails to buy the lowest and sell at the highest level. With regard to margin transactions, they are, despite what the operators told us, a form of interim loan from the investor and also a formula that not just anyone can understand. Represents a method that can bring gains but, as well, you can leave without a penny in your account. Suppose you decided to invest $ 100. Brokerage firm will provide a "leverage" of 1:100, that is real for every dollar invested can give you $ 100. You can thus use $ 10,000 of which own $ 100 and 9900 dollars of the company. The $ 10,000 buy euros at a rate of $ 1.27 for one euro. You buy them 7874 euro. From here on there are two possibilities: either the euro falls, where you lose money, the euro increases in case you win. Suppose the euro appreciated by 1% against the dollar. In this case, the 7874 is now worth 10,100 euros buy dollars. Return the borrowed 9900 dollars and end up with $ 200, you've doubled the amount. On the other hand if euro falls by 1% you will lose everything because the amount purchased will be worth only 9900 dollars, that is just money to be returned to the broker.
What is the truth
The reality is that in Romania, in addition to brokers like the above, there are a lot of serious companies that do not promise nor guarantee that its earnings and customer selected. Brokers these companies use roughly the same methods, but shows clearly how and gain opportunities and risks. "The risks involved in trading on financial markets are not negligible. Forex market volatility is high and in combination with margin trading with high leverage can be dangerous for a customer's account if it has no basic knowledge necessary to initiate a transaction, "said Julian ZF Rizea, manager of brokerage companies. On the other hand, the gains can be significant indeed. "risks arising from margin, and not from market volatility. use increases the risk margin, but also reverse is true, margin and multiply as can win, "said another broker. In Romania there are over 40,000 people who trade currencies online. Most couples choose to bet on the euro / leu euro / dollar and euro / pound sterling.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Real Time Forex Charts Basics
The first question that comes to mind when a trader wannabe sees the real time Forex charts for the first time is how to read and interpret them. Nevertheless, in order to answer that question you have to know what the chart is and what it represents. That visual projection of data displays the historical price changes of a certain pair of currencies. The charts trace the price changes on the Y axis, while the X axis represents the time. The charts presentation differs due to the varying frequencies based on which the Forex market operates. It can also be due to the huge amounts of data that are generated all over the world.
Even if real time Forex charts look difficult to understand, they are not much different than the stock charts. If you have any background knowledge and understanding of the way the currency market operates, it should not take long for you to learn and master reading and interpreting these charts. The first thing that you have to do is to select a currency pair and a specific time period that represents the length in time of each bar on the chart. You may have also noticed that there are different charts representations, such as line, candle stick or OHLC charts. The candlestick real time Forex charts are the most commonly used by both professional and amateur currency traders.
If for instance you have chosen the EUR/USD pair and the market value fluctuates around the 1.4500 value, this means that 1 unit of the EUR currency is equivalent to approximately 1.45 US dollars. You can also change the time frames, which are usually set at 1 minutes, 5 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily, and weekly. However, you are going to choose the time frames according to the trading system you will follow. Each system employs one or two specific time frames that are used to confirm the trends and patterns observed on the real time Forex charts. Last but not least, keep in mind that even if the Forex market is only closed during weekends, time zones are important to be kept in mind as well.
Even if real time Forex charts look difficult to understand, they are not much different than the stock charts. If you have any background knowledge and understanding of the way the currency market operates, it should not take long for you to learn and master reading and interpreting these charts. The first thing that you have to do is to select a currency pair and a specific time period that represents the length in time of each bar on the chart. You may have also noticed that there are different charts representations, such as line, candle stick or OHLC charts. The candlestick real time Forex charts are the most commonly used by both professional and amateur currency traders.
If for instance you have chosen the EUR/USD pair and the market value fluctuates around the 1.4500 value, this means that 1 unit of the EUR currency is equivalent to approximately 1.45 US dollars. You can also change the time frames, which are usually set at 1 minutes, 5 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily, and weekly. However, you are going to choose the time frames according to the trading system you will follow. Each system employs one or two specific time frames that are used to confirm the trends and patterns observed on the real time Forex charts. Last but not least, keep in mind that even if the Forex market is only closed during weekends, time zones are important to be kept in mind as well.
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